Israel is heading to the polls on Tuesday in a closely contested election that is being described as one of the most important in its history.

The vote is the first since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023 and the subsequent genocidal war against Palestinians in Gaza, as well as a wider conflict that has seen Israel carry out attacks on Iran, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Qatar.

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, is seeking to extend his tenure after leading the country’s most right-wing governing coalition which brought together far-right ultranationalists and ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties.

Wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges of war crimes in Gaza and faced with a long-running corruption trial, he is fighting for his political survival against a self-styled Zionist opposition bloc that has fundamentally embraced a right-wing approach to Israel’s challenges. Questions over accountability for alleged security failures, disputes over ultra-Orthodox military service and efforts to exclude Arab-led parties dominated the campaign.

This has further dampened already low expectations that the vote would offer any meaningful improvement to the lives of Palestinians, as deadly attacks continue almost daily in Gaza despite a yearlong “ceasefire”, while settler pogroms and Israeli army raids have intensified in the occupied West Bank.

“The entire Israeli political system operates within the racist framework of Jewish supremacy,” Yehouda Shenhav-Shahrabani, a noted Israeli sociologist, told Global News Insight.

“None of the leaders who present themselves as an alternative to Netanyahu can genuinely be described as left-wing. The horrifying reality we are witnessing is not simply the product of Netanyahu or the far right. It is rooted in Zionist political thought itself, which is structured around the principle of Jewish supremacy. There is no way around this fundamental fact,” he said.

Democracy?

Israel’s shift to the right did not begin with the establishment of Netanyahu’s most recent government in 2022, or what polls show to have been the rightward lurch that took place across Israel following the Hamas-led attack of 2023. Rather, the collapse of the peace process with the Palestinians and repeated security crises over the past few decades have combined to systematically erode the political centre and left, giving rise to landmark legislative milestones such as the 2018 Nation-State Law, which formally enshrined Jewish supremacy and the continued and violent expansion of illegal Israeli settlements into occupied Palestinian territory with little or no government restraint.

However, if the drift to the right was there beforehand, most analysts agree that its speed has accelerated to unprecedented heights under the latest Netanyahu government, which faced accusations of seeking to reshape the country in its own image.

They point to attempts to strip the Supreme Court of its power to review government actions and the flouting of its rulings on conscripting the ultra-Orthodox minority whose political support helped sustain the governing coalition, as well as the presence of figures such as far-right provocateur and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and religious Zionist Bezalel Smotrich, Israel’s finance minister.

Together, in return for their seat at the table, both ministers offered crucial support to the controversial judicial overhaul that Netanyahu – himself on trial for bribery, fraud and breach of trust, charges he denies – launched in the early months of 2023 and which continues to this day. Similarly, both ministers have provided encouragement and cover for the surge in violence across the West Bank, while deflecting attempts to hold the coalition accountable for the alleged security failures that preceded the Hamas-led attack.

“If Netanyahu loses the election and, say, [Gadi] Eisenkot becomes the new prime minister, the main initial change will be the atmosphere, the vibe, as Netanyahu stirs deep emotions domestically,” Ahron Bregman, an Israeli analyst and senior teaching fellow at King’s College London, told Global News Insight.

“Those who admire him, and there are many in Israel, regard him as God. Those who hate him, and there are many in Israel, hate him deeply,” said Bregman. “He’s a very divisive figure. A new prime minister is likely to calm things down.”

With the vote closely watched across the region and beyond, analysts also say the stakes go beyond the names on the ballot and cut through to the very nature of the character and future of Israel.

“The decision facing Israel of whether to retain a Netanyahu-led government or not is ultimately the decision on whether to live in a functioning democracy or a democracy in name only,” Yossi Mekelberg, a senior fellow at Chatham House, told Global News Insight.

“It’s the choice between maintaining the occupation of the West Bank or annexing it entirely and the population’s ‘voluntary migration’ from there, as figures within the government have actually suggested.”

A respect for process and the rule of law would likely return to government in the event of an opposition win, added Bregman, a sharp contrast with what he described as Netanyahu’s approach to government. However, to expect too great a change in the overall direction of policy would be to miss the point.

“Don’t be mistaken,” he cautioned. “Israel, particularly after 7 October, turned sharply to the right, and any new government will reflect and mirror this reality.”

Peace?

What will not be on the ballot, analysts and observers say, is any opportunity to challenge a foreign and security policy that has underpinned the killing of more than 74,000 people in Gaza, the increased violence across the West Bank and the launching of multiple wars, including one on Iran that has seen key energy routes choked and has left global markets reeling.

None of the mainstream candidates for office in October have talked about including Arab-led parties in any potential coalition. In Israel’s popular media, references to the leaders of Ra’am or the Joint List are typically used by rival candidates to denounce each other for considering a future coalition with Palestinian politicians, now or in the past.

Shenhav-Shahrabani, the sociologist, said the ultra-Orthodox parties would still be welcome in government after the vote by either coalition, while the Arab-led parties representing the Palestinian citizens of Israel – one-fifth of the total population – would be excluded by a system built upon prejudice.

“The distinction is not between democratic and anti-democratic forces, but between Jews and Palestinians. As long as there is no genuine binational political vision, racism and the systematic restriction of Palestinian rights will remain fundamental features of Israeli society,” he said.

If that framework shapes who is allowed into government, it also shapes what the campaign is about. Netanyahu’s challengers largely framed their disagreements with him as questions of competence, timing and accountability for the alleged failures that preceded October 7, rather than challenges to the way Palestinians are treated.

For critics, that omission is not an oversight but a reflection of where the Israeli mainstream now sits: among the issues at stake in the election, none amounted to a referendum on the genocide in Gaza. “How can it be a referendum on genocide, or anything to do with the treatment of Palestinians in Gaza?” asked Daniel Levy, a former Israeli government adviser.

“You would have to have one side arguing it was a good thing and the other arguing it was a bad thing, let alone acknowledging that it was a genocide. So, no, obviously none of that is on the ballot,” he said.

“The treatment of Palestinians by the Israeli state and military is a consensus among Zionist parties,” added Levy, with differences among them primarily resting on “whether it’s the state’s job to oppress Palestinians, or if the settler militias also have a role – a significant role – to play”.