Manila, Philippines – For years, Metro Manila’s transport congestion has been notorious, ranking worst globally in 2024, according to the TomTom traffic index. In 2021, an AltMobility and Friedrich Naumann Foundation study found that commuters spent 188 hours sitting in traffic in a year, translating to half a billion dollars in losses to the economy.

These days, however, a 26km (16.2 miles) drive from the Manila airport to the Quezon City Hall could be a 45-minute breeze, instead of the typical two hours, according to Google Maps. But it has nothing to do with the country’s transport experts magically solving the decades-old problem.

Since the United States and Israel launched their joint military operation against Iran almost a month ago, fuel prices have surged at a dizzying pace, suddenly emptying the streets of the Philippine capital of many vehicles – harking back to the COVID lockdown five years ago.

On a typical Wednesday, the Baclaran Church in Manila is bursting at the seams. Jasmine flower vendors jostle for position with barbecue sellers and transport barkers, amid a steady flow of congregants. It’s a weekly routine for many Catholic devotees.

But on the first day of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s yearlong national energy emergency declaration on March 25, the usual festive chaos outside the Romanesque-style shrine was almost gone, the honking of public transport vehicles. called jeepneys, muted. The advent of Holy Week, commemorating Jesus’ suffering and death, one of the holiest holidays for Filipinos, added even more gloom.

Outside the church complex, parking attendant Ruben, 27, stood as he waited for more customers. He had been working for more than 12 hours since three in the morning on Wednesday, and barely earned about $6 in tips, less than half his usual collection. That means emptier stomachs for his family, he said.

Emily Ruado, 59, a mother of four children, has the same dilemma. The paper napkin vendor told Global News Insight that from a daily income equivalent to $10, her take-home money after the oil price hike has shrunk to about $5. “We’re barely surviving,” she said.

Ruben and Emily’s financial quandary reflects an even bigger headache for the Philippines, as worries of a sharp increase in prices of basic goods and sudden loss of employment for thousands of people could quickly lead to a stagnating economy. Just before the Iran war began, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) was predicted to grow at 5 percent. That is becoming more unlikely now.

Meanwhile, as fewer buses, jeepneys and ride-hailing vehicles ply the streets, commuters making use of Manila’s limited railway network have swelled, creating bottlenecks during rush hour at metro stations – exposing the acute insufficiency of the train system, while also reminding the public of the multibillion-dollar infrastructure corruption scandal still roiling the country.