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Trump’s tariff could devastate Brazil’s small-scale coffee producers

Experts warn Trump’s tariff will hurt Brazil’s family farmers, who produce two-thirds of the country’s coffee output.

Employees work on a farm during the coffee harvest. — Employees work on a farm during the coffee harvest in Braganca Paulista, Brazil [Andre Penner/AP Photo]

By AP

In Porciuncula, Brazil, small-scale coffee farmer Jose Natal da Silva is losing sleep – not just to protect his arabica crops from pests, but over fears raised by a new 50% United States tariff on Brazilian goods announced by President Donald Trump.

The tariff, widely seen as a political move in defence of far-right Trump ally ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, who faces trial for an alleged coup plot, could slash demand and prices for Brazilian coffee in its top export market.

Brazil is the world’s largest coffee exporter, sending 85 percent of its output abroad. The US buys 16 percent of that, making it Brazil’s biggest coffee customer. Experts warn the tariff will hurt competitiveness, especially for family farmers who produce two-thirds of Brazil’s coffee and have fewer resources to weather downturns or shift to new markets.

Last year’s climate change-driven drought already devastated crops. Now, falling arabica prices, down 33 percent since February, are compounding losses. “We struggle for years, and suddenly we might lose everything,” said da Silva, who grows 40,000 trees and other crops to survive.

Nearby in Varre-Sai, Paulo Menezes Freitas, another smallholder with 35,000 trees, fears he may be forced to abandon coffee farming. He says the tariff also affects essential imports like machinery and aluminium. “It feels like the ground is crumbling under us,” he said.

Despite the blow, Brazil’s coffee exporters remain cautiously optimistic. The Council of Coffee Exporters of Brazil (Cecafe)’s Marcio Ferreira believes US buyers can’t afford to stop importing Brazilian beans. But on the ground, small farmers fervently hope for a rollback before livelihoods vanish.

Coffee producer Jose Natal da Silva, right, and his wife Fernanda Marssola harvest coffee beans on their farm — Coffee farmer Jose Natal da Silva, who began working in the fields at age 12, now faces uncertainty after the US imposed a 50 percent tariff on Brazilian goods, including coffee. [Bruna Prado/AP Photo]

A worker pours coffee beans into drying equipment — The US is the largest buyer of Brazilian coffee, representing 16 percent of exports. Farmers fear the tariff will affect demand. [Bruna Prado/AP Photo]

Natan Jose Marssola da Silva, left, sifts coffee beans on his father's farm — The tariff follows political tensions, as US President Donald Trump criticized the trial of Brazilian ex-president Jair Bolsonaro. [Bruna Prado/AP Photo]

Coffee farmer Jose Natal da Silva holds coffee beans after harvesting them — Small-scale producers say the tariff could reduce their already narrow margins, especially as climate conditions become more unpredictable. [Bruna Prado/AP Photo]

Coffee beans sit ready to be harvested on a coffee farm — Arabica prices have dropped 33 percent since February 2025, according to the University of Sao Paulo, creating further challenges for growers. [Bruna Prado/AP Photo]

Farmworkers carry bags of coffee beans after they were dried on a coffee farm — To manage low profits, da Silva supplements his income with small-scale production of cassava, bananas, citrus, and eggs. [Bruna Prado/AP Photo]

An aerial view of coffee plantations — In rural municipalities like Porciuncula and Varre-Sai, coffee farming is the primary source of income for most families. [Bruna Prado/AP Photo]

Marcio Vargas spreads coffee beans as part of the drying process on his coffee plantation — Experts say small producers will be most affected, as they have limited capacity to redirect exports or absorb financial losses. [Bruna Prado/AP Photo]

Workers store coffee beans in a warehouse at the Vargas coffee plantation — Farmers say the tariff may also raise the cost of essential imported materials, such as aluminium and farming equipment. [Bruna Prado/AP Photo]

Artur Vargas rides a motorcycle adapted to spread coffee beans for drying on his father's coffee plantation — Paulo Vitor Menezes Freitas, who owns 35,000 coffee trees, says many growers may stop planting coffee if prices fall further. [Bruna Prado/AP Photo]

A farm employee holds coffee berries during the coffee harvest — Brazil exports 85 percent of its coffee production. The country remains the world’s largest coffee producer. [Andre Penner/AP Photo]

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