The nature of power in Tehran today is very different from what it was in the 1970s.

Ali Khamenei views the June 18 presidential election as an opportunity to realise his vision for the future of Iran.

The IRGC will likely play a more active political role in Iran, which means talks with the US are unlikely to resume.

The Iranian authorities are ramping up repression. They fear mass protests now more than ever.

The Iranian leadership is desperate to secure a smooth election in 2020, but its tactics might not work.

However, the current US maximum pressure strategy will not result in political change either.

And will it be a ‘Kaveh’ or an ‘Alexander the Great’ who leads it?

The conservative hardliner is the most likely successor of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Ayatollah Khamenei wants to leave a lasting legacy behind and submitting to the US cannot be part of it.

IRGC staff changes and talk of the merits of a ‘military president’ suggest that a coup might be under consideration.